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Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Did Saudi Arabia Peak?
If you saw the doc Oilcrash at Hot Docs, here's an interesting, under-reported follow-up tidbit:
Saudi Aramco's mature crude oil fields are expected to decline at a gross
average rate of 8%/year without additional maintenance and drilling, a Saudi
Aramco spokesman said Tuesday.
It's even more interesting if you read this Energy Bulletin post from a few days prior:
The biggest uncertainty, however, is from Saudi production. A massive increase in Saudi capacity of more than 4.2 mb/d over the period up to 2013 has been assumed, 1.2 mb/d from Khurais in 2009 alone. Total Saudi production would then exceed the “maximum sustainable capacity” of 12 mb/d by 2016 which Aramco announced in early 2004 at a conference in the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Maybe a little historical context will be reassuring:
In all of the historical cases they examined, it was not obvious that peaking was going to occur until about a year before the event. Also, the peaks were followed by sharp declines in oil production — it did not gently slope or flatten out as some forecasters have predicted global production will.
1:22 PM
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